What will happen with global warming in the future

Scientists from around the world with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC tell us that during the past years, the world's surface air temperature increased an average of 0. This may not sound like very much change, but even one degree can impact the Earth in many ways.

According to model projections, if we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there will be about a degree of warming over this century the purple line. If we do not reduce greenhouse gases as much, Earth will warm much more orange line. The area around the lines indicates the range of model results from these two scenarios. Credit: L. Climate change is predicted to impact regions differently. For example, temperature increases are expected to be greater on land than over oceans and greater at high latitudes than in the tropics and mid-latitudes.

Warmer temperatures will cause and are causing changes to other aspects of climate - such as rain, snow, and clouds. They are also causing changes to the ocean, life, ice, and all other parts of the Earth system. More water vapor in the atmosphere will lead to more precipitation.

However, changes in precipitation will not be evenly distributed. Some locations will get more, and others will see less.

As the climate warms, snow and ice melt. It is predicted that the melting of glaciers, ice sheets, and other snow and ice on land in the summer will continue to be greater than the amount of precipitation that falls in the winter, which means a decrease in the total amount of snow and ice on the planet. Over the past years, mountain glaciers in all areas of the world have decreased in size and so has the amount of permafrost in the Arctic. Greenland's ice sheet is melting faster, too.

The amount of sea ice frozen seawater floating in the Arctic Ocean and around Antarctica is expected to decrease. Already the summer thickness of sea ice in the Arctic is about half of what it was in The bottom pathway assumes that emissions reach a peak between and , declining thereafter. We have already observed global warming over the last several decades.

Future temperatures are expected to change further. Climate models project the following key temperature-related changes.

Projected temperature change for mid-century left and end-of-century right in the United States under higher top and lower bottom emissions scenarios. The brackets on the thermometers represent the likely range of model projections, though lower or higher outcomes are possible. Patterns of precipitation and storm events, including both rain and snowfall are also likely to change. However, some of these changes are less certain than the changes associated with temperature.

Projections show that future precipitation and storm changes will vary by season and region. Some regions may have less precipitation, some may have more precipitation, and some may have little or no change. The amount of rain falling in heavy precipitation events is likely to increase in most regions, while storm tracks are projected to shift poleward. Projected changes in global annual mean precipitation for a low emissions scenario left and high emissions scenario right.

Blue and green areas are projected to experience increases in precipitation by the end of the century, while yellow and brown areas are projected to experience decreases. The maps show projected future changes in precipitation for the end of this century, compared with , under a higher emissions scenario. For example, in winter and spring, climate models agree that northern areas in the United States are likely to get wetter and southern areas drier.

There is less confidence in exactly where the transition between wetter and drier areas will occur. Confidence in the projected changes is highest in the areas marked with diagonal lines. The changes in white areas are not projected to be larger than what would be expected from natural variability. Source: U. National Climate Assessment , Click the image to view a larger version.

Arctic sea ice is already declining. Over the next century, it is expected that sea ice will continue to decline, glaciers will continue to shrink, snow cover will continue to decrease, and permafrost will continue to thaw.

Potential changes to ice, snow, and permafrost are described below. These maps show projected losses of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctica. The maps in a show the average ice concentration the relative area covered by sea ice from The maps in b and c show climate model simulations of sea ice thickness in February and September near the end of the 21st century under low b and high c emission scenarios.

The longer this takes to achieve, and the more greenhouse gases that are emitted in the meantime, the larger the scale of future climate change. The amount of future global warming is closely related to cumulative CO 2 emissions Figure 4. So far, humanity has emitted well over half of this quota: between and cumulative emissions were billion tonnes.

The remaining quota is equivalent to around 30 years worth of current emissions. To stay within such a carbon quota, long-term global emissions reductions would have to average between 5. Previous Contents Next. But the process was much more difficult — and took a lot longer — than anticipated. Only now, as the major climate-modelling centres around the world run their experiments for the IPCC assessment, are they taking centre stage in climate research.

The hard truths of climate change — by the numbers. Although based on the old RCPs, the new scenarios for the first time present fully fleshed-out narratives about how the world might evolve. Each provides a broad storyline about how the world might change, as well as numbers for key demographic trends — population, economic productivity, urbanization and education — in every country on Earth, which modellers then use to simulate emissions and planetary impacts.

The teams that produced the SSPs intentionally left out any climate policies. This approach allows scientists to run their own experiments and test the impacts of different decisions by governments and societies, says Ebi. The flexibility allows her and other public-health researchers to compare and contrast the health benefits from climate policies that simultaneously reduce carbon emissions and result in cleaner air.

They were shaped before the political upheaval of , when the United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union and the United States elected President Donald Trump, who promised to put America first and withdraw from the Paris climate treaty. But the teams that drafted the SSPs imagined a storyline that is very close to the path that the United States and other major powers are taking.

It sees concerns about economic competitiveness and security lead to trade wars. As the decades progress, national efforts to lock down energy and food supplies short-circuit global development. Investments in education and technology decline. But that is the point. Change 42 , — Article Google Scholar.

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